How scary is it that I actually agree with most of a post that Hoy makes? He basically wrote everything that I know about megas in his latest post. Seriously, its right here. When you are playing these things the first step is to see what % of the field is getting seats. If 10% advances and you start with 1500 the average will be 15k when you reach the end. You DO NOT need to reach that figure. There always will be a monster stack or two when it gets to the end and they get the honor of raising EVERY, SINGLE, HAND while all of the medium stacks let 'em and the short stacks are desperately trying to hang on.
Early on in mega's I am trying to get the double. I will gamble it up and take flips early on so that I can start putting a lot of pressure on with my above average hands and hammer away with my premium hands. I played the token frenzy Sunday night after busting out of the Pokerslut Tour. It was a $14 buy-in for $75 tokens. There were 179 runners and 33 won a token with 34th getting the extra cash. This tells us that one in every 5.5 players will win a seat. Average stack at the end is going to be around 8250. So our goal is to be around 6k and maintain. Lets give it a go.
In the second level of this turbo event I limped with K,Q in MP. There was one caller and the BB checked. Flop comes K,x,x and this is a spot where I am going to get in a check-raise vs the button if I can. He doesn't have A,K or he would raise pre-flop. The only possibility is flopping two pair with K,x and when you average out hand ranges you are in good shape. The BB checked, I checked and the button bets out 80 or about 1/2 the pot. BB folds and I check raise to 320. He decides to shove and I make the call based on what I discussed before. He shows the K,10. The board bricks out and I am now up to 3000 just like that.
After that I ran in FT god mode and picked up AA four times, getting action from a short stack shove twice. I also had KK once, all of this in the first hour. At the break we had 45 people. I never had to play a hand after that and coasted my way to the token. I will most likely use the tokens to try and satellite into the Sunday $750k guarantee which is $216 and then unregister and take the T$ if I win a seat.
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