Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Some NL 2-7 Single Draw Strategy

I know not many of you play the game so I thought I would put down some numbers on some common spots in the game. Last night I was playing a sit & go and ran across a situation that comes up often, but I didn't know the exact odds. Let's start with the first part of the hand:

Table '304139281 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: MITYAY317 (1320 in chips)
Seat 2: scottc25 (1680 in chips)
MITYAY317: posts the ante 20
scottc25: posts the ante 20
MITYAY317: posts small blind 40
scottc25: posts big blind 80
Dealt to scottc25 [6s Jc 7h Ts 8s]
MITYAY317: raises 160 to 240

My opponent has been doing a lot of 4x raises with their 2 card draw hands from the sb/button and 3x raises with his 1 card drawing hands. Having a made hand vs drawing hands is such a huge advantage in this game. Basically if someone jams you are never getting good odds even with a 1 card draw.

scottc25: raises 1420 to 1660 and is all-in
MITYAY317: calls 1060 and is all-in

I am at the very top of my jamming range in this spot with a pat Jack hand. Keep in mind that I would never open jam here but this is a perfect spot to jam over raises. Looking at the numbers my opponent should only call with a made hand in this spot.

Uncalled bet (360) returned to scottc25
scottc25: stands pat on [6s Jc 7h Ts 8s]
MITYAY317: discards 1 card
*** SHOW DOWN ***
scottc25: shows [6s Jc 7h Ts 8s] (Lo: J,T,8,7,6)
MITYAY317: shows [4h 5d 3c 5s 2s] (Lo: a pair of Fives)
scottc25 collected 2640 from pot
MITYAY317 finished the tournament in 2nd place
scottc25 wins the tournament and receives $6.00 - congratulations!
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2640 | Rake 0
Seat 1: MITYAY317 (button) (small blind) showed [4h 5d 3c 5s 2s] and lost with Lo: a pair of Fives
Seat 2: scottc25 (big blind) showed [6s Jc 7h Ts 8s] and won (2640) with Lo: J,T,8,7,6

Let's look at his odds vs my made hand. My opponent was holding 2,3,4,5 meaning he could catch any 7,8,9,10 or jack to win the hand. at first glance that looks like 20 cards to hit his hand or approximately 40%, right on the number(1060/2640) to make a profitable call. Keep in mind in draw games I have to have some of his outs in order to have a hand worthy of jamming. Let's take 2 cards out if his possible outs (as it turns out I had 4) for 18 total and an approximate 36% chance of winning. That turns his one card draw into a losing proposition.

Let's further look into my jamming range. Knowing the odds I am never making this play with a made queen. My range is limited to made J,10,9,8 and 7 hands. My head hurts too much to figure out those numbers, but let's look at a pat 10 hand for example. My opponents outs are reduced to 16 and even further reduced to the cards I have already in my hand (guessing 2), their percentage drops all the way to 28%.

OK enough math and strategy. Time to rest.

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